Give him money to eat, then next week he's broke
Beset and I like to make prop bets to motivate each other. As he posted, I made a bet that he can't play 30,000 hands of 100 NL Full Ring without playing any other game at any other limit, including MTT's and SNG's. This is harder than it sounds.
As turnaround, we've made a bet that I can't deposit and make $50,000 in by June 30th. I have a rakeback payment of roughly $400 coming in mid to late december, and will be depositing roughly $300 next week. If I make $50K by April 1st, Beset owes me $1000. If I make the $50K by June 30th, it's $500. Alternatively, if I make less than $50,000 but more than $25,000 I owe him $500, and if I make less than $25,000, it's the full $1000.
Is it possible?
Here's the plan:
6 Table $25 PLO on Party for 2-3 Weeks, approximately 40 hours a week, hopefully ending up with roughly $2500, which is the minimum BR I require to play $50 PLO. I will then play up to 6 tables of $50 PLO (Full Ring, my 6 max BR needs to be roughly $5500, no joke.) until I have the $10,000 I need to play my style in $100 games on both Stars and Party. If I can get to this point it should be smooth sailing. The real issue is whether I can play $25 and $50 PLO for nearly two months. It's an aggravating grind. There are very few decent players at these levels and not much room for outplaying your opponents after the flop. Once I hit $100 PLO I should be able to make $2000-$3000 per week running at 10BB/100. This is a conservative estimate but given how I've been running as of late it may be overly optimistic. After that I merely have to play until I have $20,000 or so and move up to the $200 games. Playing four tables forty hours a week (160 table hours) I could run fairly bad (4-6 PT BB/HR) and still just squeak in.
We've been fucking around with bankroll requirements lately, using the formula:
ROR = exp(-2*BR*WR/VAR)
Ideally you want your ROR to be as low as possible. I am willing to accept a 1% ROR but I have built in an additional factor to allow me to drop down if necessary. At any given time, my bankroll will be the total amount required for me to have a 1% ROR at my current level, plus the amounts necessary to have the same ROR at all lower levels.
For instance, if I want to play $100 PLO I know I need about $8000. My variance is uber-high in this game. To play $50 PLO however with the same risk of ruin, I only need about $1500. That's a huge difference. 30 Buyins vs 80! My $25 PLO stats tell me I need only about $500 to have the same one percent chance of going broke so the total bankroll I need according to my plan for $100 PLO is $500 + $1500 + $8000 = $10,000. Seems like a lot, but I like to push very small edges and get a lot of money in whenever I percieve that tiny little marginal value.
The time off has been going well. I haven't been doing much but it's given me a lot of time to get away from the game and just relax in a normal (well, close to normal, probably 3 sigma's out) life for a while.
I will be posting my results on a weekly basis. Wish me luck, you fucking assholes.
As turnaround, we've made a bet that I can't deposit and make $50,000 in by June 30th. I have a rakeback payment of roughly $400 coming in mid to late december, and will be depositing roughly $300 next week. If I make $50K by April 1st, Beset owes me $1000. If I make the $50K by June 30th, it's $500. Alternatively, if I make less than $50,000 but more than $25,000 I owe him $500, and if I make less than $25,000, it's the full $1000.
Is it possible?
Here's the plan:
6 Table $25 PLO on Party for 2-3 Weeks, approximately 40 hours a week, hopefully ending up with roughly $2500, which is the minimum BR I require to play $50 PLO. I will then play up to 6 tables of $50 PLO (Full Ring, my 6 max BR needs to be roughly $5500, no joke.) until I have the $10,000 I need to play my style in $100 games on both Stars and Party. If I can get to this point it should be smooth sailing. The real issue is whether I can play $25 and $50 PLO for nearly two months. It's an aggravating grind. There are very few decent players at these levels and not much room for outplaying your opponents after the flop. Once I hit $100 PLO I should be able to make $2000-$3000 per week running at 10BB/100. This is a conservative estimate but given how I've been running as of late it may be overly optimistic. After that I merely have to play until I have $20,000 or so and move up to the $200 games. Playing four tables forty hours a week (160 table hours) I could run fairly bad (4-6 PT BB/HR) and still just squeak in.
We've been fucking around with bankroll requirements lately, using the formula:
ROR = exp(-2*BR*WR/VAR)
Ideally you want your ROR to be as low as possible. I am willing to accept a 1% ROR but I have built in an additional factor to allow me to drop down if necessary. At any given time, my bankroll will be the total amount required for me to have a 1% ROR at my current level, plus the amounts necessary to have the same ROR at all lower levels.
For instance, if I want to play $100 PLO I know I need about $8000. My variance is uber-high in this game. To play $50 PLO however with the same risk of ruin, I only need about $1500. That's a huge difference. 30 Buyins vs 80! My $25 PLO stats tell me I need only about $500 to have the same one percent chance of going broke so the total bankroll I need according to my plan for $100 PLO is $500 + $1500 + $8000 = $10,000. Seems like a lot, but I like to push very small edges and get a lot of money in whenever I percieve that tiny little marginal value.
The time off has been going well. I haven't been doing much but it's given me a lot of time to get away from the game and just relax in a normal (well, close to normal, probably 3 sigma's out) life for a while.
I will be posting my results on a weekly basis. Wish me luck, you fucking assholes.
6 Comments:
Quite fascinating bet you have going here.
My thoughts -
1. Beset's objective does not seem that difficult, as I know he is an experienced NL player, and frankly, NLHE $100 isn't that tough. The idea that he can't do it because he loves PLO so much is silly.
2. Rempel's objective sounds exceedingly difficult, especially since the PLO $100 games are not as common and the players are getting tougher. Many players I labeled as fish initially are playing quite solidly now. When you get to PLO $200, the situation is even worse.
3. $50,000 is a lot of money for anybody to win, even a seasoned pro. So I think the odds are against Rempel.
Quite fascinating bet you have going here.
My thoughts -
1. Beset's objective does not seem that difficult, as I know he is an experienced NL player, and frankly, NLHE $100 isn't that tough. The idea that he can't do it because he loves PLO so much is silly.
2. Rempel's objective sounds exceedingly difficult, especially since the PLO $100 games are not as common and the players are getting tougher. Many players I labeled as fish initially are playing quite solidly now. When you get to PLO $200, the situation is even worse.
3. $50,000 is a lot of money for anybody to win, even a seasoned pro. So I think the odds are against Rempel.
Quite fascinating bet you have going here.
My thoughts -
1. Beset's objective does not seem that difficult, as I know he is an experienced NL player, and frankly, NLHE $100 isn't that tough. The idea that he can't do it because he loves PLO so much is silly.
2. Rempel's objective sounds exceedingly difficult, especially since the PLO $100 games are not as common and the players are getting tougher. Many players I labeled as fish initially are playing quite solidly now. When you get to PLO $200, the situation is even worse.
3. $50,000 is a lot of money for anybody to win, even a seasoned pro. So I think the odds are against Rempel.
It's Friday night and on Party Poker, there's only 2 PLO$100 games running. Talk about scarcity...
Beset, if he really wanted to make it difficult, he should have challenged you to 30k hands of LHE 3/6.
I think Rempel is actually doing you a favor if you really have money management / discipline problems. You will probably improve your game.
On the other hand, Rempel's objectives force him to play even more aggressively, which could very well worsen his game (although knowing him, I doubt he would ever admit that!)
1. Beset's goal isn't difficult... for a normal person. I think he has issues with being able to sit down at a single limit and grind it out for a while. 30K hands ain't much for me, but as he said previously, it's 3 weeks to a month for him. $100 is a lower level than he is used to playing and he gets frequently frustrated playing NLHE.
2. It is difficult. That's the point. I need to make about $1785 per week on average for over half a year.
My WR at the lowest limit I play is 18.88 PTBB/100 at $25 PLO on party and stars. About 70% of these hands have been played 6 tabling or more. Playing 6 tables for about 12,000 hands per week at this level I can expect to make about $1100 per week.
So if I can play $25 PLO for nearly seven months and maintain my WR, I should be able to make about $30,000. As for the availability of the games, people seem to want to play with me, especially if I play on one particular account at party.
There is also no qualifier in this bet about what game it is. The only condition is that none of the $50,000 can come from MTT wins. If PLO dries up for two weeks and I have to play NLHE, I will.
As for playing more aggressively, PLO is a game best played aggressively and I will continue to do so. I really appreciate the snide comment at the end, especially from someone posting anonymously (*cough* joewatch *cough*). Always good to see you play kiss ass with the 2+2 mod and make the usual retarded comments regarding my play.
Obviously my goal here is not to win money from Beset. We both have certain issues in common in relation to gambling, br management and winner's tilt. These prop bets are a way to remedy this because we both fucking hate losing bets.
Here's a list of our current prop bets:
1. The 30K one.
2. Beset's stop smoking bet. He laid me 4:1 back in october that he go until January 31st without taking as much as a single drag on a cigarette.
3. My stop smoking bet. I quit on Friday. Beset and I have a $200 1:1 bet that I can't go until March 12th without smoking.
4. The $50,000 bet. Yeah, the goal is going to be somewhat difficult and the payout is favoured to beset.
I'm still going to do it and I'm going to win the fucking bet.
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